Centre for European Reform

Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, placed Trump’s second presidency among seismic historical events, comparing it to the fall of the Berlin Wall and the 9/11 attacks. He warned that tariffs increase inflation, restrict trade, hinder growth, and introduce significant uncertainty into the global economy. Yet he also identified unexpected benefits: Trump’s tariffs are inadvertently strengthening European unity, restoring Germany’s leadership role within the EU, and nudging post-Brexit Britain closer to the European continent.

“The [European Central Bank] has the most ironclad independence of any central bank in the world,” said Sander Tordoir, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform and a former ECB staffer. “So if you’re worried about central bank independence, I think most investors will probably just have a bit more exposure to Europe and a little bit less to the US.”

Sander Tordoir, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform, said German support for its industry will create downstream demand for suppliers in other European countries that are reeling from Chinese competition and the threat of US tariffs.

“Everybody hopes that, but nobody knows what she’s going to be able to achieve,” said Charles Grant, founding director of the Centre for European Reform think-tank. Despite her rapport with Trump, Meloni’s Italy is to some extent also “in the doghouse” with Trump's team, Grant said, because of its low defense spending and trade deficit with Washington — two of Trump’s biggest bugbears.